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Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor — 1. Lig 2018

Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
11/23/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 12Vefa Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük48%
×Draw25%
Ümraniyespor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatih Karagümrük
1.55
Ümraniyespor
1.09

Fatih Karagümrük creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 125 away

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.68
Ümraniyespor
1.16

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.03
Ümraniyespor
1.42

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw
73%
Fatih Karagümrük or Ümraniyespor
75%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
52%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
24%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
79%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
46%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
20%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
66%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
30%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
64%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.42 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.68 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ümraniyespor attack 1.16 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more
48%
level
25%
Ümraniyespor scores more
27%

Fatih Karagümrük at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Fatih Karagümrük 2–3 Ümraniyespor

Ümraniyespor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 in 1. Lig on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Vefa Stadı in İstanbul.