Umeå FC 2–2 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Umeå FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ostersunds FK

H. Lundqvist 78'

E. Bjorgolfsson 41'

J. Hopcutt 90' (pen)

T. Johansson 9'

4/12/2025

Superettan · Round 3Umea Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Umeå FC46%

×Draw23%

Ostersunds FK30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umeå FCExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.39

Umeå FC

1.76

Ostersunds FK

1.39

Umeå FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.62

creates per match

1.25

1.53

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Umeå FC

1.62

Ostersunds FK

1.25

allows per match

Umeå FC

1.53

Ostersunds FK

1.90

-0.62scores less than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Umeå FC-0.62scores less

Ostersunds FK-0.66scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw

70%

Umeå FC or Ostersunds FK

77%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

54%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+

25%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals

83%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

52%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

26%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

75%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

40%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

60%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 8 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 1.62 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ostersunds FK attack 1.25 + Umeå FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Umeå FC scores more

46%

level

23%

Ostersunds FK scores more

30%

Umeå FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

D. Persson

Umeå FC · D

7.5

Match Events

9'

T. Johansson

19'

Simon Marklund

41'

E. Bjorgolfsson↳ J. Hedstrom

54'

Maximilian Dejene

59'

K. Jawla← J. Kirby

60'

Ali Suljić

64'

Z. Ghanoum← M. Oluwayemi

65'

L. Vikgren← M. Dejene

67'

Daniel Persson

75'

E. Cederblad← E. Bjorgolfsson

75'

H. Lundqvist← J. Voilas

78'

H. Lundqvist↳ L. Vikgren

84'

Y. Adjoumani← T. Johansson

85'

J. Hopcutt← C. Enemark

85'

G. Granstrom← A. Bonnah

86'

Mikael Harbosen Haga

86'

R. Andersson← M. H. Haga

86'

D. Bangala← J. Hedstrom

90+7'

Alfredo Martiatu Nordeman

90'

J. HopcuttPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UmeåOstersunds

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots9

0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.51

10Corners6

15Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target5

4Off Target0

4Blocked4

5Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

301Total Passes424

237Accurate Passes360

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1