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Ostersunds FK vs Umeå FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
I. Johansson 85'
3/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ostersunds FK35%
×Draw28%
Umeå FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.15
Umeå FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.00
Umeå FC
1.00

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
1.33
Umeå FC
1.29

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
64%
Ostersunds FK or Umeå FC
72%
Draw or Umeå FC
65%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
15%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
68%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
32%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
11%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
69%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
33%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
49%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.00 + Umeå FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Umeå FC attack 1.00 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
35%
level
28%
Umeå FC scores more
36%

Umeå FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'
I. Johansson
Ostersunds
Umeå
Tor-Arne Fredheim
Manager: Tor-Arne Fredheim
Anders Baath-Sjoblom
Manager: Anders Baath-Sjoblom

Friendlies Clubs: Ostersunds FK 0–1 Umeå FC

Umeå FC beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 21, 2026.

Goals: I. Johansson (85').