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Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Umeå FC
Umeå FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
3/15/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Umea Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Umeå FC54%
×Draw29%
Ostersunds FK17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC
1.33
Ostersunds FK
0.61

Umeå FC creates 118% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Umeå FC
2.09
Ostersunds FK
0.14

allows per match

Umeå FC
1.09
Ostersunds FK
0.57

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 69Over: 3169%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 66Yes: 3466%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw
83%
Umeå FC or Ostersunds FK
71%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
46%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+
26%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals
74%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
38%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
15%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
46%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
13%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)
76%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 2.09 + Ostersunds FK defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ostersunds FK attack 0.14 + Umeå FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Umeå FC scores more
54%
level
29%
Ostersunds FK scores more
17%

Umeå FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Umeå
Ostersunds
A. Bååth
Manager: A. Bååth
Kiarash Livani
Manager: Kiarash Livani

Friendlies Clubs: Umeå FC 0–0 Ostersunds FK

Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Umea Energi Arena in Umea.