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Umeå FC vs Kalmar FF — Superettan 2026

Umeå FC
Umeå FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
8/16/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 19Umea Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Umeå FC18%
×Draw27%
Kalmar FF55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC
0.70
Kalmar FF
1.46

Kalmar FF creates 109% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Umeå FC
0.87
Kalmar FF
1.40

allows per match

Umeå FC
1.53
Kalmar FF
0.53

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw
45%
Umeå FC or Kalmar FF
73%
Draw or Kalmar FF
82%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+
5%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals
50%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
16%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
3%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
77%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
43%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)
24%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 0.87 + Kalmar FF defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.70

Kalmar FF attack 1.40 + Umeå FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Umeå FC scores more
18%
level
27%
Kalmar FF scores more
55%

Kalmar FF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Umeå FC 0–1 Kalmar FF

Kalmar FF beat Umeå FC 1-0 in Superettan on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Umea Energi Arena in Umea.