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Kalmar FF vs Umeå FC — Svenska Cupen 2019

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
2/21/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Gasten IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kalmar FF55%
×Draw21%
Umeå FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
2.08
Umeå FC
1.29

Kalmar FF creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
2.31
Umeå FC
1.57

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.00
Umeå FC
1.86

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
77%
Kalmar FF or Umeå FC
79%
Draw or Umeå FC
45%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
33%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
87%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
61%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
34%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
72%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
37%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
70%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.31 + Umeå FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.08

Umeå FC attack 1.57 + Kalmar FF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
55%
level
21%
Umeå FC scores more
23%

Kalmar FF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Kalmar FF 1–2 Umeå FC

Umeå FC beat Kalmar FF 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Gasten IP in Kalmar.