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Kalmar FF vs Umeå FC — Superettan 2026

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
5/22/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 9Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kalmar FF62%
×Draw21%
Umeå FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
2.00
Umeå FC
0.92

Kalmar FF creates 117% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
2.07
Umeå FC
0.97

allows per match

Kalmar FF
0.87
Umeå FC
1.93

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
83%
Kalmar FF or Umeå FC
79%
Draw or Umeå FC
38%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
38%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
86%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
59%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
32%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
60%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
23%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
79%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.07 + Umeå FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Umeå FC attack 0.97 + Kalmar FF defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
62%
level
21%
Umeå FC scores more
17%

Kalmar FF at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Kalmar FF 2–0 Umeå FC

Kalmar FF beat Umeå FC 2-0 in Superettan on May 22, 2025.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.