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Umeå FC vs IFK Luleå — Ettan - Norra 2019

Umeå FC
Umeå FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå
6/18/2021Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 12Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Umeå FC52%
×Draw22%
IFK Luleå26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC
1.98
IFK Luleå
1.33

Umeå FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Umeå FC
1.96
IFK Luleå
1.33

allows per match

Umeå FC
1.34
IFK Luleå
2.00

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par
IFK Luleå+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

IFK Luleå →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw
74%
Umeå FC or IFK Luleå
78%
Draw or IFK Luleå
48%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+
30%
IFK Luleå wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals
86%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
59%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
31%
IFK Luleå 1+ goals
74%
IFK Luleå 2+ goals
38%
IFK Luleå 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)
67%
IFK Luleå (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

IFK Luleå away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 1.96 + IFK Luleå defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

IFK Luleå attack 1.33 + Umeå FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Umeå FC scores more
52%
level
22%
IFK Luleå scores more
26%

Umeå FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Umeå FC vs IFK Luleå

Umeå FC beat IFK Luleå 1-0 in Ettan - Norra on June 18, 2021.

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.