IFK Luleå 2–1 Umeå FC: Result & Stats

IFK Luleå

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Umeå FC

P. Pettersen 42'

F. Begliardi 14'

E. Yeboah 23'

7/3/2022

Svenska Cupen · 1st RoundNyabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

IFK Luleå24%

×Draw22%

Umeå FC54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK LuleåExpected goals in this matchUmeå FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.00

IFK Luleå

1.27

Umeå FC

2.00

Umeå FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

1.57

2.44

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

IFK Luleå

0.67

Umeå FC

1.57

allows per match

IFK Luleå

2.44

Umeå FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par

Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

Umeå FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw

46%

IFK Luleå or Umeå FC

78%

Draw or Umeå FC

76%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+

10%

Umeå FC wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals

72%

IFK Luleå 2+ goals

36%

IFK Luleå 3+ goals

14%

Umeå FC 1+ goals

86%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

59%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)

31%

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 0.67 + Umeå FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.27

Umeå FC attack 1.57 + IFK Luleå defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

IFK Luleå scores more

24%

level

22%

Umeå FC scores more

54%

Umeå FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

F. Begliardi

23'

E. Yeboah

42'

P. Pettersen

70'

M. Chahrour← P. Pettersen

75'

G. Mattar← J. Johansson-Inga

79'

D. Ekman← A. Bahtijar

IFK

Umeå

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: O. Stangnes

70'▲M. Chahrour←▼P. Pettersen

75'▲G. Mattar←▼J. Johansson-Inga

IFK Luleå substitutes

ChahrourMattarForsmanLidmanNouriLutström

Manager: B. Nassiri

79'▲D. Ekman←▼A. Bahtijar

Umeå FC substitutes

EkmanJohanssonAlexisEriksson