Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IFK Luleå vs Umeå FC — Ettan - Norra 2019

IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
9/19/2021Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 21Nyabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IFK Luleå35%
×Draw24%
Umeå FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Luleå
1.46
Umeå FC
1.60

Umeå FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 82 away

creates per match

IFK Luleå
1.40
Umeå FC
1.51

allows per match

IFK Luleå
1.70
Umeå FC
1.51

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw
59%
IFK Luleå or Umeå FC
76%
Draw or Umeå FC
65%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+
16%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals
77%
IFK Luleå 2+ goals
43%
IFK Luleå 3+ goals
18%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
80%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
47%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)
46%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 1.40 + Umeå FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Umeå FC attack 1.51 + IFK Luleå defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IFK Luleå scores more
35%
level
24%
Umeå FC scores more
41%

Umeå FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: IFK Luleå 0–1 Umeå FC

Umeå FC beat IFK Luleå 1-0 in Ettan - Norra on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Nyabvallen in Luleå.