Umeå FC 0–1 GIF Sundsvall: Result & Stats

Umeå FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

GIF Sundsvall

6/14/2025

Superettan · Round 12Umea Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Umeå FC33%

×Draw27%

GIF Sundsvall40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umeå FCExpected goals in this matchGIF Sundsvall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.32

Umeå FC

1.16

GIF Sundsvall

1.32

GIF Sundsvall creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 82 away

0.87

creates per match

1.11

1.53

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Umeå FC

0.87

GIF Sundsvall

1.11

allows per match

Umeå FC

1.53

GIF Sundsvall

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

GIF Sundsvall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw

60%

Umeå FC or GIF Sundsvall

73%

Draw or GIF Sundsvall

67%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+

13%

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals

69%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

32%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

11%

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals

73%

GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals

38%

GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

45%

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 0.87 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.11 + Umeå FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Umeå FC scores more

33%

level

27%

GIF Sundsvall scores more

40%

GIF Sundsvall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff