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GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC — Superettan 2026

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
9/29/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 25NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

GIF Sundsvall49%
×Draw24%
Umeå FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.70
Umeå FC
1.21

GIF Sundsvall creates 40% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 30 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.47
Umeå FC
0.97

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.45
Umeå FC
1.93

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
73%
GIF Sundsvall or Umeå FC
76%
Draw or Umeå FC
51%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
26%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
82%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
51%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
24%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
70%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
34%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
64%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.45 · 83 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.47 + Umeå FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.70

Umeå FC attack 0.97 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
49%
level
24%
Umeå FC scores more
27%

GIF Sundsvall at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: GIF Sundsvall 3–1 Umeå FC

GIF Sundsvall beat Umeå FC 3-1 in Superettan on September 29, 2025.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.