GIF Sundsvall 3–2 Umeå FC: Result & Stats

GIF Sundsvall

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Umeå FC

2/7/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

GIF Sundsvall48%

×Draw23%

Umeå FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GIF SundsvallExpected goals in this matchUmeå FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.30

GIF Sundsvall

1.75

Umeå FC

1.30

GIF Sundsvall creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

1.60

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall

2.20

Umeå FC

1.00

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall

1.60

Umeå FC

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Umeå FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw

71%

GIF Sundsvall or Umeå FC

77%

Draw or Umeå FC

52%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+

26%

Umeå FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals

83%

GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals

52%

GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals

25%

Umeå FC 1+ goals

73%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

37%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)

63%

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 2.20 + Umeå FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.75

Umeå FC attack 1.00 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more

48%

level

23%

Umeå FC scores more

29%

GIF Sundsvall at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff