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Ulm U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Ulm U19
Ulm U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
Y. Müller 78' (pen), 17' (pen)
I. El Hadj-Safi 59'
E. Johnson-Warren 54'
8/13/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 3Albeck Hauptspielfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1945%
×Draw21%
Stuttgarter K'rs U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulm U19
2.14
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
1.85

Ulm U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ulm U19
1.67
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
1.27

allows per match

Ulm U19
2.44
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
2.61

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par
Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw
66%
Ulm U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19
79%
Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19
55%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+
26%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals
88%
Ulm U19 2+ goals
63%
Ulm U19 3+ goals
36%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals
84%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals
55%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.14

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ulm U19 scores more
45%
level
21%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more
34%

Ulm U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ulm U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Y. MüllerPenalty
54'
E. Johnson-Warren
59'
I. El Hadj-Safi
78'
Y. MüllerPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Ulm U19 3–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Ulm U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 13, 2025.

Goals: Y. Müller (17' pen, 78' pen), E. Johnson-Warren (54'), I. El Hadj-Safi (59').

The match was played at Albeck Hauptspielfeld in Langenau (Albeck).