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Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Ulm U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Stuttgarter K'rs U19
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ulm U19
Ulm U19
10/24/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1953%
×Draw20%
Ulm U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19
2.24
Ulm U19
1.56

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19
1.56
Ulm U19
1.24

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19
1.88
Ulm U19
2.91

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par
Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw
73%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Ulm U19
80%
Draw or Ulm U19
47%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+
32%
Ulm U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals
89%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals
65%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals
38%
Ulm U19 1+ goals
79%
Ulm U19 2+ goals
46%
Ulm U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Ulm U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.24

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more
53%
level
20%
Ulm U19 scores more
27%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stuttgarter K'rs U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Ulm U19

Ulm U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 24, 2025.

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.