Stuttgarter K'rs U19 5–1 Ulm U19: Result & Stats

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Ulm U19

E. Zogjani 73', 16', 6'

P. Seemann 34'

H. Eroğlu 14'

R. Kratt 23'

3/6/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1953%

×Draw20%

Ulm U1927%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchUlm U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.56

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.24

Ulm U19

1.56

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

1.56

creates per match

1.24

1.88

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Ulm U19

1.24

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Ulm U19

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

73%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Ulm U19

80%

Draw or Ulm U19

47%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

32%

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

89%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

65%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

38%

Ulm U19 1+ goals

79%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

46%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.24

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

53%

level

20%

Ulm U19 scores more

27%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stuttgarter K'rs U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

E. Zogjani

14'

H. Eroğlu

16'

E. Zogjani

21'

23'

R. Kratt

34'

P. Seemann

46'

S. Puseljic← M. Fofanah

58'

J. Taglang← A. Yılmaz

65'

L. Biemel← H. Eroğlu

65'

R. Terpsiadis← T. Hohloch

66'

G. D'Aleo← Y. Mallet

66'

N. Dubroja← B. Dikmen

73'

M. Hudalla← C. Sanozidis

73'

F. Annabring← J. Nsanzimana

73'

E. Zogjani

Stuttgarter

Ulm

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

⚽

⚽

▼

Eroğlu

Manager: Y. Dreyer

65'▲L. Biemel←▼H. Eroğlu

65'▲R. Terpsiadis←▼T. Hohloch

66'▲G. D'Aleo←▼Y. Mallet

73'▲M. Hudalla←▼C. Sanozidis

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

BiemelTerpsiadisD'AleoHudallaGubbeKeçeci

Manager: C. Gmünder

46'▲S. Puseljic←▼M. Fofanah

58'▲J. Taglang←▼A. Yılmaz

66'▲N. Dubroja←▼B. Dikmen

73'▲F. Annabring←▼J. Nsanzimana

Ulm U19 substitutes

PuseljicTaglangDubrojaAnnabringFennell

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 5–1 Ulm U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 beat Ulm U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 6, 2022.

Goals: E. Zogjani (6', 16', 73'), H. Eroğlu (14'), R. Kratt (23'), P. Seemann (34').

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Ulm U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 5–1 Ulm U19