Ulm U19 0–1 Freiburg U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Freiburg U19

M. Reifsteck 85'

4/26/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 11Albeck Hauptspielfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1931%

×Draw21%

Freiburg U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.10

Ulm U19

1.68

Freiburg U19

2.10

Freiburg U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 67 away

1.67

creates per match

1.76

2.44

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.67

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.44

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

52%

Ulm U19 or Freiburg U19

79%

Draw or Freiburg U19

69%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

15%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

81%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

50%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

24%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

88%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

62%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.68

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

31%

level

21%

Freiburg U19 scores more

48%

Freiburg U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

S. Brunner← L. Ladenburger

46'

E. Redzic← R. Gogonea

71'

E. Ouhssakou← B. Mohamed

71'

R. Maier← L. Sawas

77'

J. Makwaya← L. Schulten

78'

S. Wetter← T. Kögel

85'

M. Reifsteck

88'

E. Altay← I. El Hadj-Safi

89'

N. Musch← M. Reifsteck

Ulm

Freiburg

Katz

Klein

Oguguo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Lechleiter

41'▲S. Brunner←▼L. Ladenburger

78'▲S. Wetter←▼T. Kögel

88'▲E. Altay←▼I. El Hadj-Safi

Ulm U19 substitutes

BrunnerWetterAltayYükselHöckerErhart

Manager: J. Wiedensohler

46'▲E. Redzic←▼R. Gogonea

71'▲E. Ouhssakou←▼B. Mohamed

71'▲R. Maier←▼L. Sawas

77'▲J. Makwaya←▼L. Schulten

89'▲N. Musch←▼M. Reifsteck

Freiburg U19 substitutes

RedzicOuhssakouMaierMakwayaMuschEtringer

Match Recap: Ulm U19 vs Freiburg U19

Freiburg U19 beat Ulm U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 26, 2025.

Goals: M. Reifsteck (85').

The match was played at Albeck Hauptspielfeld in Albeck.

Ulm U19 vs Freiburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ulm U19 vs Freiburg U19