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Freiburg U19 vs Ulm U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ulm U19
Ulm U19
Z. Rauch 90'
E. Ouhssakou 58' (pen)
B. Ehe 61'
L. Mahle 31'
8/23/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Freiburg U1963%
×Draw18%
Ulm U1919%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburg U19
2.67
Ulm U19
1.42

Freiburg U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

Freiburg U19
2.44
Ulm U19
1.24

allows per match

Freiburg U19
1.59
Ulm U19
2.91

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par
Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw
81%
Freiburg U19 or Ulm U19
82%
Draw or Ulm U19
37%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
43%
Ulm U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals
93%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
74%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
49%
Ulm U19 1+ goals
76%
Ulm U19 2+ goals
41%
Ulm U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Ulm U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.67

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more
63%
level
18%
Ulm U19 scores more
19%

Freiburg U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
L. Mahle
58'
E. OuhssakouPenalty
61'
B. Ehe
90'
Z. Rauch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freiburg U19 vs Ulm U19

Freiburg U19 and Ulm U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 23, 2025.

Goals: L. Mahle (31'), E. Ouhssakou (58' pen), B. Ehe (61'), Z. Rauch (90').

The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.