Freiburg U19 4–0 Ulm U19: Result & Stats

Freiburg U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ulm U19

A. Echner 90'

M. Bleise 83'

D. Au Yeong 55'

A. Moutassime 9'

4/30/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 21Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Freiburg U1963%

×Draw18%

Ulm U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchUlm U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.42

Freiburg U19

2.67

Ulm U19

1.42

Freiburg U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

2.44

creates per match

1.24

1.59

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.44

Ulm U19

1.24

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.59

Ulm U19

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

81%

Freiburg U19 or Ulm U19

82%

Draw or Ulm U19

37%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

43%

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

93%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

74%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

49%

Ulm U19 1+ goals

76%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

41%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.67

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Ulm U19 scores more

19%

Freiburg U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Moutassime

46'

M. Bleise← M. Hülsenbusch

55'

D. Au Yeong

58'

M. Wörner← Y. Sturm

59'

N. Dubroja← J. Windsor

69'

T. Birk← G. Pellegrino

69'

L. Marino← D. Au Yeong

71'

79'

83'

86'

90'

Freiburg

Ulm

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Yeong

Ji-han

Manager: F. Valente

46'▲M. Bleise←▼M. Hülsenbusch

58'▲M. Wörner←▼Y. Sturm

69'▲T. Birk←▼G. Pellegrino

69'▲L. Marino←▼D. Au Yeong

Freiburg U19 substitutes

BleiseWörnerBirkMarinoMackGallegoCatak

Manager: C. Gmünder

59'▲N. Dubroja←▼J. Windsor

71'▲M. Fofanah←▼R. Kratt

79'▲S. Haiß←▼D. Čeko

86'▲G. Wagner←▼A. Esch

Ulm U19 substitutes

DubrojaFofanahHaißWagnerTaglang