Ulm U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 45+ matches
Ulm U1936%
1860 München U1943%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
1860 München U19 creates 10% more chances
Season form · 45 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over75
- Under25
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes74
- No26
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ulm U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches
1860 München U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.88
1860 München U19 attack 1.70 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
1860 München U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
1860 München U19 substitutes
Head to Head
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Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Bochum U19
Mainz 05 U19
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Preußen Münster U19
St. Pauli U19
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Carl Zeiss Jena U19
Hannover 96 U19
Heidenheim U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
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Bayern München U19
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Magdeburg U19
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Stuttgart U19
MSV Duisburg U191860 München U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Augsburg U19
Nürnberg U19
Greuther Fürth U19
Eintracht Frankf U19
Meppen U19
Sandhausen U19
Dynamo Dresden U19
Babelsberg U19
Werder Bremen U19
Havelse U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
Karlsruher SC U19Ulm U19
Erzgebirge Aue U19
Viktoria Berlin U19
Holstein Kiel U19
Hansa Rostock U19
Saarbrücken U19
BAK 07 U19
Darmstadt 98 U19
Jahn Regensburg U19
Hallescher FC U19
Fortuna Köln U19
FSV Frankfurt U19
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
Eintracht Braunsch U19
Unterhaching U19
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
Hombrucher SV U19
Rot-Weiß Walldorf U19
Blumenthaler SV U19
Kickers Offenbach U19
FK Pirmasens U19
Schott Mainz U19
Osnabrück U19
Lübeck U19
Elversberg U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
SC Borea Dresden U19
Wacker Burghausen U19
SG Unterrath U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ulm U19 host 1860 München U19 on Saturday, 28 September 2024 at 11:00. The match is part of the U19 Bundesliga 2019/2020 season.
Ulm U19 4 – 2 1860 München U19
Ulm U19 beat 1860 München U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 28, 2024.
Goals: D. Belec (3', 71'), E. Dursun (45+1'), N. Hill (48', 56'), M. Güzelarslan (75').
The match was played at Albeck Hauptspielfeld in Albeck.