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1860 München U19 vs Ulm U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

1860 München U19
1860 München U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ulm U19
Ulm U19
P. Sturm 82'
B. Kawele 56'
L. Fiedler 51'
9/20/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

1860 München U1957%
×Draw20%
Ulm U1923%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 München U19
2.33
Ulm U19
1.44

1860 München U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

creates per match

1860 München U19
1.76
Ulm U19
1.24

allows per match

1860 München U19
1.64
Ulm U19
2.91

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par
Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw
77%
1860 München U19 or Ulm U19
80%
Draw or Ulm U19
43%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+
36%
Ulm U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals
90%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
67%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
41%
Ulm U19 1+ goals
76%
Ulm U19 2+ goals
42%
Ulm U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Ulm U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

1860 München U19 scores more
57%
level
20%
Ulm U19 scores more
23%

1860 München U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
L. Fiedler
56'
B. Kawele
82'
P. Sturm

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1860 München U19 3 – 0 Ulm U19

1860 München U19 beat Ulm U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 20, 2025.

Goals: L. Fiedler (51'), B. Kawele (56'), P. Sturm (82').

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5 in München.