1860 München U19 6–1 Ulm U19: Result & Stats

1860 München U19

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ulm U19

G. Genidis 90+1'

L. Azambuja 88'

F. Wagner 60'

C. Lippmann 47', 45+1'

E. Erdogan 19'

T. Klimek 69'

8/3/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 1Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

1860 München U1957%

×Draw20%

Ulm U1923%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München U19Expected goals in this matchUlm U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.44

1860 München U19

2.33

Ulm U19

1.44

1860 München U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

1.76

creates per match

1.24

1.64

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

1860 München U19

1.76

Ulm U19

1.24

allows per match

1860 München U19

1.64

Ulm U19

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Ulm U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw

77%

1860 München U19 or Ulm U19

80%

Draw or Ulm U19

43%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

36%

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals

90%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

67%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

41%

Ulm U19 1+ goals

76%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

42%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Ulm U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Ulm U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ulm U19 attack 1.24 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

1860 München U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Ulm U19 scores more

23%

1860 München U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

E. Erdogan

45+1'

C. Lippmann

46'

L. Azambuja← D. Avdić

46'

E. Altay← J. Totschnig

46'

S. Wetter← M. Lang

47'

C. Lippmann

58'

M. Ruoß← N. Hill

58'

S. Brunner← L. Mahle

60'

F. Wagner

69'

T. Klimek

71'

G. Genidis← F. Wagner

71'

L. Fiedler← E. Duran

71'

L. Hohmann← E. Dursun

71'

M. Komar← S. Althaus

71'

M. Tekin← C. Lippmann

75'

I. El Hadj-Safi← T. Klimek

75'

L. Ladenburger← B. Ehe

77'

88'

L. Azambuja

90+1'

G. Genidis

1860

Ulm

Höcker

▼

Lang

Aschmann

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wagner

⚽

Erdogan

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

46'▲L. Azambuja←▼D. Avdić

71'▲G. Genidis←▼F. Wagner

71'▲L. Fiedler←▼E. Duran

71'▲L. Hohmann←▼E. Dursun

71'▲M. Komar←▼S. Althaus

71'▲M. Tekin←▼C. Lippmann

1860 München U19 substitutes

AzambujaGenidisFiedlerHohmannKomarTekinErkocaoglan

Manager: R. Lechleiter

46'▲E. Altay←▼J. Totschnig

46'▲S. Wetter←▼M. Lang

58'▲M. Ruoß←▼N. Hill

58'▲S. Brunner←▼L. Mahle

75'▲I. El Hadj-Safi←▼T. Klimek

75'▲L. Ladenburger←▼B. Ehe

Ulm U19 substitutes

AltayWetterRuoßBrunnerHadj-SafiLadenburgerZielke