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Ujpest vs Diosgyori VTK — League #271 2026

Ujpest
Ujpest
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Diosgyori VTK
Diosgyori VTK
N. Gradisar 22'
G. Vlijter 19'
Y. Croizet 88' (pen)
2/21/2026League #271League #271 · Round 23Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ujpest38%
×Draw23%
Diosgyori VTK40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ujpest
1.65
Diosgyori VTK
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ujpest
1.50
Diosgyori VTK
2.00

allows per match

Ujpest
1.40
Diosgyori VTK
1.80

finishing

Ujpest+0.00on par
Diosgyori VTK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ujpest ↓

Diosgyori VTK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ujpest or draw
60%
Ujpest or Diosgyori VTK
77%
Draw or Diosgyori VTK
62%

Winning margin

Ujpest wins by 2+
19%
Diosgyori VTK wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ujpest 1+ goals
81%
Ujpest 2+ goals
49%
Ujpest 3+ goals
23%
Diosgyori VTK 1+ goals
82%
Diosgyori VTK 2+ goals
51%
Diosgyori VTK 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ujpest (draw refunded)
49%
Diosgyori VTK (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ujpest at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Diosgyori VTK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ujpest attack 1.50 + Diosgyori VTK defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Diosgyori VTK attack 2.00 + Ujpest defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ujpest scores more
38%
level
23%
Diosgyori VTK scores more
40%

Diosgyori VTK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Diosgyori VTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39
G. VlijterUjpestUjpest · M
8.2

Match Events

19'
G. Vlijter
22'
N. Gradisar↳ G. Vlijter
26'
Aljoša MatkoGoal cancelled
27'
M. Peto← B. Szakos
28'
L. I. Kastrati← A. Roguljic
29'
Gergő Holdampf
34'
M. Sajban← M. Mucsanyi
39'
Lirim Kastrati
46'
A. Krajcsovics← G. Vlijter
46'
A. Vallejo← P. Ambrose
57'
Attila Fiola
61'
K. Horvath← A. Matko
61'
M. Tucic← F. Brodic
69'
Y. Croizet← G. Holdampf
83'
Anderson Esiti
84'
B. L. Katona← N. Gradisar
87'
Patrizio Stronati
88'
Y. CroizetPenalty
89'
B. Bese← G. Bodnar

Possession

47%Ujpest

Shots

14Ujpest

Pass accuracy

49%Ujpest

Statistics

UjpestDiosgyori
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots12
6Corners1
14Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots12
8On Target7
2Off Target4
4Blocked1
10Inside Box7
4Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
309Total Passes352
224Accurate Passes266
72%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Ujpest vs Diosgyori VTK

Ujpest beat Diosgyori VTK 2-1 in League #271 on February 21, 2026.

Goals: G. Vlijter (19'), N. Gradisar (22'), Y. Croizet (88' pen).

Diosgyori VTK controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.