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Ujpest vs Diosgyori VTK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ujpest
Ujpest
FT
1 – 1
Diosgyori VTK
Diosgyori VTK
8/1/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ujpest40%
×Draw25%
Diosgyori VTK35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ujpest
1.50
Diosgyori VTK
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ujpest
1.22
Diosgyori VTK
1.89

allows per match

Ujpest
0.89
Diosgyori VTK
1.78

finishing

Ujpest+0.00on par
Diosgyori VTK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ujpest ↓

Diosgyori VTK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ujpest or draw
65%
Ujpest or Diosgyori VTK
75%
Draw or Diosgyori VTK
60%

Winning margin

Ujpest wins by 2+
19%
Diosgyori VTK wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ujpest 1+ goals
78%
Ujpest 2+ goals
44%
Ujpest 3+ goals
19%
Diosgyori VTK 1+ goals
75%
Diosgyori VTK 2+ goals
40%
Diosgyori VTK 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ujpest (draw refunded)
53%
Diosgyori VTK (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ujpest at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Diosgyori VTK away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ujpest attack 1.22 + Diosgyori VTK defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Diosgyori VTK attack 1.89 + Ujpest defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ujpest scores more
40%
level
25%
Diosgyori VTK scores more
35%

Ujpest at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ujpest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ujpest 1–1 Diosgyori VTK

Ujpest and Diosgyori VTK drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.