Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Diosgyori VTK vs Ujpest — League #271 2026

Diosgyori VTK
Diosgyori VTK
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Ujpest
Ujpest
E. Acolatse 23' (pen)
A. Matko 83'
K. Horvath 42'
S. Bokros 35' (OG)
11/2/2025League #271League #271 · Round 12DVTK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Diosgyori VTK41%
×Draw25%
Ujpest35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diosgyori VTK
1.53
Ujpest
1.39

Diosgyori VTK creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Diosgyori VTK
1.33
Ujpest
1.27

allows per match

Diosgyori VTK
1.50
Ujpest
1.73

finishing

Diosgyori VTK+0.00on par
Ujpest+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diosgyori VTK ↓

Ujpest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Diosgyori VTK or draw
65%
Diosgyori VTK or Ujpest
75%
Draw or Ujpest
59%

Winning margin

Diosgyori VTK wins by 2+
20%
Ujpest wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Diosgyori VTK 1+ goals
78%
Diosgyori VTK 2+ goals
45%
Diosgyori VTK 3+ goals
20%
Ujpest 1+ goals
75%
Ujpest 2+ goals
40%
Ujpest 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Diosgyori VTK (draw refunded)
54%
Ujpest (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diosgyori VTK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Ujpest away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diosgyori VTK attack 1.33 + Ujpest defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ujpest attack 1.27 + Diosgyori VTK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Diosgyori VTK scores more
41%
level
25%
Ujpest scores more
35%

Diosgyori VTK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Diosgyori VTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
K. HorvathUjpestUjpest · M
7.9

Match Events

19'
Máté SajbánPenalty confirmed
23'
E. AcolatsePenalty
35'
S. BokrosOwn goal
42'
K. Horvath↳ A. Matko
45+7'
Elton AcolatsePenalty cancelled
45+4'
Krisztofer Horváth
45+8'
Barnabás Bese
46'
M. Lund← C. Szatmari
47'
Gábor Jurek
49'
Aboubakar Keita
50'
Iuri Medeiros
51'
Elton Acolatse
55'
B. Komlosi← A. Keita
55'
B. Babos← E. Acolatse
61'
A. Roguljic← M. Mucsanyi
67'
Tom Lacoux
76'
M. Mucsanyi← S. Bokros
76'
B. Geiger← G. Beridze
83'
A. Matko↳ T. Lacoux
88'
A. Ademi← I. Medeiros
88'
M. Tucic← A. Matko
90+3'
D. Kobouri← K. Horvath
90+3'
G. Ganea← D. Rasak

Possession

60%Diosgyori

Shots

14Diosgyori

Pass accuracy

52%Diosgyori

Statistics

DiosgyoriUjpest
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots12
6Corners8
7Fouls5
Shots
14Total Shots12
5On Target3
6Off Target4
3Blocked5
10Inside Box7
4Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
377Total Passes259
307Accurate Passes195
81%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls5
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Diosgyori VTK vs Ujpest

Ujpest beat Diosgyori VTK 3-1 in League #271 on November 2, 2025.

Goals: E. Acolatse (23' pen), S. Bokros (35' o.g.), K. Horvath (42'), A. Matko (83').

Diosgyori VTK controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at DVTK Stadion in Miskolc.