UCV 2–2 Fundación Lara Deportiva: Result & Stats

UCV

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Fundación Lara Deportiva

8/7/2025

Copa Venezuela · Round of 16Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

UCV49%

×Draw27%

Fundación Lara Deportiva24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCVExpected goals in this matchFundación Lara Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.88

UCV

1.40

Fundación Lara Deportiva

0.88

UCV creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.14

creates per match

1.33

0.43

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

UCV

1.14

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.33

allows per match

UCV

0.43

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCV+0.00on par

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UCV or draw

76%

UCV or Fundación Lara Deportiva

73%

Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva

51%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+

24%

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals

75%

UCV 2+ goals

41%

UCV 3+ goals

17%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

59%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

22%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)

67%

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.14 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.33 + UCV defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UCV scores more

49%

level

27%

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

24%

UCV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff