Fundación Lara Deportiva 2–2 UCV: Result & Stats

Fundación Lara Deportiva

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

UCV

1/19/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva33%

×Draw25%

UCV41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fundación Lara DeportivaExpected goals in this matchUCV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.46

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.29

UCV

1.46

UCV creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

1.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.33

UCV

1.25

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.67

UCV

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

UCV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw

59%

Fundación Lara Deportiva or UCV

75%

Draw or UCV

67%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

15%

UCV wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

72%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

37%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

14%

UCV 1+ goals

77%

UCV 2+ goals

43%

UCV 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

45%

UCV (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

UCV away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.33 + UCV defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

UCV attack 1.25 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

33%

level

25%

UCV scores more

41%

UCV at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff