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UCV vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
0 – 0
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
11/28/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 9Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

UCV44%
×Draw28%
Fundación Lara Deportiva28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.29
Fundación Lara Deportiva
0.97

UCV creates 33% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 77 away

creates per match

UCV
1.27
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

UCV
0.93
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UCV or draw
72%
UCV or Fundación Lara Deportiva
72%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
56%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
20%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
72%
UCV 2+ goals
37%
UCV 3+ goals
14%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
62%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
25%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
61%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.27 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + UCV defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UCV scores more
44%
level
28%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
28%

UCV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCV vs Fundación Lara Deportiva

UCV and Fundación Lara Deportiva drew 0-0 in Segunda División on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara in Barquisimeto.