Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UCAM Murcia II vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Alex Torres 57'
Fran Cortés 67'
1/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

UCAM Murcia II43%
×Draw28%
La Unión Atlético29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
1.31
La Unión Atlético
1.01

UCAM Murcia II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 45 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
71%
UCAM Murcia II or La Unión Atlético
72%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
57%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
20%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
73%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
38%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
14%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
64%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
27%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
60%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
43%
level
28%
La Unión Atlético scores more
29%

UCAM Murcia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Dani Díez← Adrián Aguirre
57'
Alex Torres
58'
Ayoub Goudani← Gabi Jimeno
62'
Fran Cortés← Higón
62'
Josema Vivancos← Belencoso
67'
Fran Cortés
76'
Juan Ibáñez← N. Kwaku
76'
Guille Lozano← Alex Torres
90'
Alejandro Domingo← Isa Drammeh
90+3'
Sergio Jiménez← Sergi Valls
UCAM
La
Xabi Irureta
Irureta
Mario Hernández
Hernández
Sergi Valls
▼
Valls
Walter Navarro
Navarro
Adrián Aguirre
▼
Aguirre
Higón
▼
Higón
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Monty
Monty
Javi Grillo
Grillo
Tato
Tato
Belencoso
▼
Belencoso
Rubén Abril
Abril
Raúl Luisi
Luisi
Alex Torres
⚽
▼
Torres
Christian Kontchou
Kontchou
Javier López
López
Vidal
Vidal
Gastón Alonso
Alonso
N. Kwaku
▼
Kwaku
José Pedrosa
Pedrosa
Isa Drammeh
▼
Drammeh
Gabi Jimeno
▼
Jimeno
Alberto Castillo
Manager: Alberto Castillo
58'▲Ayoub Goudani←▼Gabi Jimeno
76'▲Juan Ibáñez←▼N. Kwaku
76'▲Guille Lozano←▼Alex Torres
90'▲Alejandro Domingo←▼Isa Drammeh

UCAM Murcia II substitutes

GoudaniIbáñezLozanoDomingo
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
46'▲Dani Díez←▼Adrián Aguirre
62'▲Fran Cortés←▼Higón
62'▲Josema Vivancos←▼Belencoso
90+3'▲Sergio Jiménez←▼Sergi Valls

La Unión Atlético substitutes

DíezCortésVivancosJiménez

UCAM Murcia II 1 – 1 La Unión Atlético

UCAM Murcia II and La Unión Atlético drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 8, 2023.

Goals: Alex Torres (57'), Fran Cortés (67').

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.