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UCAM Murcia II vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
L. Booker 73'
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

UCAM Murcia II43%
×Draw28%
La Unión Atlético29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
1.31
La Unión Atlético
1.01

UCAM Murcia II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 45 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
71%
UCAM Murcia II or La Unión Atlético
72%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
57%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
20%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
73%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
38%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
14%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
64%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
27%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
60%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
43%
level
28%
La Unión Atlético scores more
29%

UCAM Murcia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Chema← Adrián Aguirre
57'
Serrano← Álvaro Martínez
63'
Fran Martínez← Mariano Carmona
63'
Juan Arcas← Álex Jiménez
63'
Nico González← Omar Saura
70'
Monas← Paco Miñarro
70'
E. Varela← David Maldonado
73'
L. Booker
75'
Francisco Matallana← A. Simpara
80'
H. Eagle← Belencoso
UCAM
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Julio Algar
Algar
Iván Zaragoza
Zaragoza
Adrián Aguirre
▼
Aguirre
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Álex Jiménez
▼
Jiménez
A. Simpara
▼
Simpara
Schuster
Schuster
Belencoso
▼
Belencoso
Omar Saura
▼
Saura
Paco Collados
Collados
Zorro
Zorro
David Maldonado
▼
Maldonado
Cuxart
Cuxart
L. Booker
⚽
Booker
Antonio Olmos
Olmos
Ángel Andugar
Andugar
Álvaro Martínez
▼
Martínez
Diego Iglesias
Iglesias
Adri González
González
Paco Miñarro
▼
Miñarro
Mariano Carmona
▼
Carmona
Pato Grao
Manager: Pato Grao
57'▲Serrano←▼Álvaro Martínez
63'▲Fran Martínez←▼Mariano Carmona
70'▲Monas←▼Paco Miñarro
70'▲E. Varela←▼David Maldonado

UCAM Murcia II substitutes

SerranoMartínezMonasVarela
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
46'▲Chema←▼Adrián Aguirre
63'▲Juan Arcas←▼Álex Jiménez
63'▲Nico González←▼Omar Saura
75'▲Francisco Matallana←▼A. Simpara
80'▲H. Eagle←▼Belencoso

La Unión Atlético substitutes

ChemaArcasGonzálezMatallanaEagle

Match Recap: UCAM Murcia II vs La Unión Atlético

UCAM Murcia II beat La Unión Atlético 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 31, 2021.

Goals: L. Booker (73').

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.