La Unión Atlético 3–0 UCAM Murcia II

La Unión Atlético

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

UCAM Murcia II

Fran Cortés 90+5'

David Valdeolivas 40', 37'

9/11/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético46%

×Draw27%

UCAM Murcia II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.98

La Unión Atlético

1.37

UCAM Murcia II

0.98

La Unión Atlético creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 110 away

1.60

creates per match

1.33

0.62

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

73%

La Unión Atlético or UCAM Murcia II

73%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

54%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

22%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

75%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

40%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

16%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

62%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

26%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

63%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

46%

level

27%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

27%

La Unión Atlético at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

David Valdeolivas

40'

David Valdeolivas

57'

José Pedrosa← Samuel Mayo

63'

Fran Cortés← Belencoso

63'

Dani Díez← Vitolo

69'

Alex Torres← Eduardo Méndez

69'

Alejandro Domingo← Gabi Jimeno

70'

Tato← Sergio Jiménez

81'

José Moreno← Ayoub Goudani

83'

Diego Gil← Mario Hernández

83'

Adrián Aguirre← Higón

90+5'

UCAM

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

63'▲Fran Cortés←▼Belencoso

63'▲Dani Díez←▼Vitolo

70'▲Tato←▼Sergio Jiménez

83'▲Diego Gil←▼Mario Hernández

83'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Higón

La Unión Atlético substitutes

CortésDíezTatoGilAguirre

Manager: Alberto Castillo

57'▲José Pedrosa←▼Samuel Mayo

69'▲Alex Torres←▼Eduardo Méndez

69'▲Alejandro Domingo←▼Gabi Jimeno

81'▲José Moreno←▼Ayoub Goudani

UCAM Murcia II substitutes

PedrosaTorresDomingoMoreno