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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Preview
01:00
Monterrey
Monterrey
11/22/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 17
Big match
42%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
model favours
42%26%32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas42%
×Draw26%
Monterrey32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.44
Monterrey
1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 154 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Monterrey
1.36

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Monterrey
1.28

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Monterrey
74%
Draw or Monterrey
58%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
20%
Monterrey wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
76%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
42%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
18%
Monterrey 1+ goals
71%
Monterrey 2+ goals
35%
Monterrey 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
57%
Monterrey (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Monterrey attack 1.36 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
42%
level
26%
Monterrey scores more
32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Monterrey have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Monterrey win just 45% against the top half (vs 76% against the bottom)
  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit 1, Monterrey 13 in the table
  • Monterrey outscore their xG (2.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Balanced
Monterrey
Possession-dominant
51%Possession55%
82%Pass accuracy84%
12.4ShotsBiggest gap14.6
1.42xG1.55
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
U.N.A.M. - PumasMonterrey

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2
Draws
7
Monterrey
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 40%
2–01–10–21–33–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pumas
LLWLD
Monterrey
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Monterrey

November 22, 2026: U.N.A.M. - Pumas take on Monterrey in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.