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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Monterrey
Monterrey
A. Angulo 24', 9'
2/22/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Olimpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas42%
×Draw26%
Monterrey32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.44
Monterrey
1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 154 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Monterrey
1.36

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Monterrey
1.28

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Monterrey
74%
Draw or Monterrey
58%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
20%
Monterrey wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
76%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
42%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
18%
Monterrey 1+ goals
71%
Monterrey 2+ goals
35%
Monterrey 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
57%
Monterrey (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Monterrey attack 1.36 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
42%
level
26%
Monterrey scores more
32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
K. NavasU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · G
9.0

Match Events

9'
A. Angulo↳ R. Lopez
24'
A. Angulo
28'
R. de la Rosa← F. Ambriz
61'
U. Antuna← Juninho
65'
G. Arteaga← L. Reyes
65'
E. Aguirre← R. Chavez
72'
G. Martinez← J. Carrillo
74'
J. Corona← L. Orellano
74'
L. Ocampos← I. Fimbres
89'
J. Rivas← R. Lopez
89'
J. Caicedo← R. Morales

Possession

36%U.N.A.M.

Shots

13U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

48%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Monterrey
Overview
36%Possession64%
13Total Shots25
1.54Expected Goals (xG)1.32
4Corners8
10Fouls6
Shots
13Total Shots25
6On Target10
4Off Target11
3Blocked4
8Inside Box12
5Outside Box13
Passing
36%Possession64%
338Total Passes570
274Accurate Passes506
81%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
10Saves4
-0.47Goals Prevented-0.47
Discipline
10Fouls6

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–0 Monterrey

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Monterrey 2-0 in Liga MX on February 22, 2026.

Goals: A. Angulo (9', 24').

Monterrey controlled possession (64%) and registered 25 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Universitario in Mexico City.