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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Monterrey
Monterrey
G. Martínez 90' (pen)
G. Berterame 71'
I. Fimbres 54'
Sergio Canales 49' (pen)
3/17/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas42%
×Draw26%
Monterrey32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.45
Monterrey
1.22

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 154 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.61
Monterrey
1.36

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.08
Monterrey
1.28

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Monterrey
74%
Draw or Monterrey
58%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
20%
Monterrey wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
77%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
42%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
18%
Monterrey 1+ goals
70%
Monterrey 2+ goals
34%
Monterrey 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
57%
Monterrey (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 147 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.61 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

Monterrey attack 1.36 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
42%
level
26%
Monterrey scores more
32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Sergio CanalesMonterreyMonterrey · M
8.3

Match Events

21'
Érick Aguirre
42'
Lucas Ocampos
49'
Sergio CanalesPenalty
52'
Ignacio Pussetto
54'
I. Fimbres↳ Sergio Canales
60'
P. Quispe← I. Pussetto
60'
G. Martínez← Á. Azuaje
69'
Rogelio Funes MoriGoal cancelled
69'
N. Deossa← L. Ocampos
69'
J. Corona← Óliver Torres
70'
Nathan Silva← J. Caicedo
71'
G. Berterame↳ Sergio Canales
79'
A. Ávila← R. Funes Mori
79'
Á. Rico← L. Suárez
80'
R. de la Rosa← G. Berterame
80'
J. Cortizo← Sergio Canales
90+2'
Sergio Ramos
90+1'
T. Leone← É. Aguirre
90'
G. MartínezPenalty

Possession

51%U.N.A.M.

Shots

13U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

50%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Monterrey
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots11
6Corners3
14Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots11
3On Target6
4Off Target2
6Blocked3
6Inside Box9
7Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
419Total Passes405
362Accurate Passes345
86%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Monterrey

Monterrey beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-1 in Liga MX on March 17, 2025.

Goals: Sergio Canales (49' pen), I. Fimbres (54'), G. Berterame (71'), G. Martínez (90' pen).

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Universitario in D.F..