U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–5 Monterrey: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Monterrey

G. Martínez 87', 36'

I. Pussetto 66'

Óliver Torres 90+3'

G. Arteaga 79'

G. Berterame 73', 32'

L. Ocampos 56'

12/1/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas42%

×Draw26%

Monterrey32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.44

Monterrey

1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 154 away

1.59

creates per match

1.36

1.09

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.59

Monterrey

1.36

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.09

Monterrey

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

68%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Monterrey

74%

Draw or Monterrey

58%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

20%

Monterrey wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

76%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

42%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

18%

Monterrey 1+ goals

71%

Monterrey 2+ goals

35%

Monterrey 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

57%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Monterrey attack 1.36 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

42%

level

26%

Monterrey scores more

32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

C. Huerta

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

Nathan Silva

32'

G. Berterame

36'

G. Martínez

46'

J. Ruvalcaba← R. Ergas

56'

L. Ocampos↳ Sergio Canales

60'

I. Pussetto← P. Bennevendo

61'

R. Funes Mori← R. López

64'

Guillermo Martínez

64'

É. Aguirre← S. Medina

66'

I. Pussetto

68'

F. Ambríz← I. Fimbres

72'

A. Ávila← I. Pussetto

73'

G. Berterame↳ É. Aguirre

79'

G. Arteaga

83'

R. de la Rosa← Sergio Canales

83'

H. Moreno← L. Ocampos

83'

B. Vázquez← G. Berterame

84'

Jorge Rodríguez

87'

G. Martínez↳ C. Huerta

88'

90+8'

90+6'

90+6'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Monterrey

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots9

8Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots9

8On Target5

8Off Target3

4Blocked1

12Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

454Total Passes276

376Accurate Passes194

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1