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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Monterrey
Monterrey
W. Corozo 90+4', 90+1'
4/17/2022Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas47%
×Draw24%
Monterrey29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.69
Monterrey
1.27

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Monterrey
1.17

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Monterrey
1.76

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Monterrey-0.17scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
71%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Monterrey
76%
Draw or Monterrey
53%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
25%
Monterrey wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
82%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
50%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
24%
Monterrey 1+ goals
72%
Monterrey 2+ goals
36%
Monterrey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
62%
Monterrey (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Monterrey defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Monterrey attack 1.17 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
47%
level
24%
Monterrey scores more
29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
W. CorozoU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · F
8.5

Match Events

45+5'
Alan Mozo
45+5'
Juan Dinenno
45+4'
Juan DinennoCard upgrade
56'
Joel Campbell
68'
É. Aguirre← H. Moreno
68'
A. González← L. Romo
68'
R. Pizarro← J. Campbell
69'
W. Corozo← Rogério
69'
S. Saucedo← F. Álvarez
75'
Diogo
83'
J. Galindo← L. López
83'
O. Islas← Diogo
85'
A. Alvarado← J. Gallardo
90+2'
Washington Corozo
90+3'
M. Rodríguez← M. Kranevitter
90+1'
W. Corozo↳ Higor Meritão
90+4'
W. Corozo↳ E. Velarde

Possession

42%U.N.A.M.

Shots

14U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

49%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Monterrey
Overview
42%Possession58%
14Total Shots17
5Corners6
10Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots17
5On Target5
5Off Target8
4Blocked4
7Inside Box11
7Outside Box6
Passing
42%Possession58%
352Total Passes506
308Accurate Passes455
88%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls8
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
4Offsides4

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Monterrey

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Monterrey 2-0 in Liga MX on April 17, 2022.

Goals: W. Corozo (90+1', 90+4').

Monterrey controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..