U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–0 Monterrey: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Monterrey

J. Vigón 76'

1/26/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas47%

×Draw24%

Monterrey29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.27

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.69

Monterrey

1.27

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.62

creates per match

1.17

1.37

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Monterrey

1.17

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Monterrey

1.76

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Monterrey-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

71%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Monterrey

76%

Draw or Monterrey

53%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

25%

Monterrey wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

82%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

50%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

24%

Monterrey 1+ goals

72%

Monterrey 2+ goals

36%

Monterrey 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

62%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Monterrey defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Monterrey attack 1.17 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

47%

level

24%

Monterrey scores more

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Vigón

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · M

8.4

Match Events

38'

Dorlan Pabón

56'

V. Janssen← R. Pizarro

64'

A. González← D. Pabón

69'

I. Malcorra← S. Saucedo

74'

M. Layún← C. Rodríguez

76'

J. Vigón

79'

M. García← P. Barrera

81'

Rogelio Funes Mori

90+1'

J. Dinenno← F. Álvarez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Monterrey

Overview

62%Possession38%

24Total Shots7

18Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

24Total Shots7

6On Target3

12Off Target1

6Blocked3

12Inside Box5

12Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

407Total Passes259

339Accurate Passes179

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4