U. Catolica 2–3 San Luis: Result & Stats

U. Catolica

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

San Luis

J. Rossel 82'

F. Zuqui 36'

G. Albertengo 90+7'

M. Donoso 77' (pen)

S. Parada 45+2' (pen)

4/3/2025

Copa Chile · Group Stage - 5Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

U. Catolica57%

×Draw23%

San Luis20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. CatolicaExpected goals in this matchSan Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.96

U. Catolica

1.80

San Luis

0.96

U. Catolica creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.87

creates per match

0.91

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

U. Catolica

1.87

San Luis

0.91

allows per match

U. Catolica

1.00

San Luis

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par

San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw

80%

U. Catolica or San Luis

77%

Draw or San Luis

43%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+

32%

San Luis wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals

83%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

54%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

27%

San Luis 1+ goals

62%

San Luis 2+ goals

25%

San Luis 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

74%

San Luis (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

San Luis away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.87 + San Luis defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.80

San Luis attack 0.91 + U. Catolica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

U. Catolica scores more

57%

level

23%

San Luis scores more

20%

U. Catolica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Donoso

27'

F. Zampedri

36'

F. Zuqui

38'

M. Carreno

45+2'

S. ParadaPenalty

46'

J. Rossel← D. Valencia

46'

Jader← A. Canales

65'

G. Novero← S. Parada

68'

G. Medel

71'

C. Montes← J. Valencia

72'

M. Garcia

75'

D. Escobar← S. Arancibia

75'

E. Mena← C. Cuevas

77'

M. DonosoPenalty

79'

G. Bustos← M. Larraín

82'

J. Rossel↳ E. Bello

89'

G. Albertengo← M. Donoso

89'

J. Retamales← M. Carreño

90+1'

B. Ampuero

90+3'

C. Vergara

90+7'

G. Albertengo↳ J. Retamales

U.

San

12

6

4

18

16

7

13

11

⚽

▼

Parada

39

⚽

▼

Donoso

9

▼

Carreño

30

▼

1

17

19

15

▼

Cuevas

6

▼

Arancibia

8

⚽

Zuqui

20

▼

Valencia

22

▼

Canales

9

Zampedri

18

A

Bello

30

▼

Valencia

Manager: Tiago Nunes

46'▲J. Rossel←▼D. Valencia

46'▲Jader←▼A. Canales

71'▲C. Montes←▼J. Valencia

75'▲D. Escobar←▼S. Arancibia

75'▲E. Mena←▼C. Cuevas

U. Catolica substitutes

14Rossel7Jader11Montes21Escobar3Mena25Farías23Asta-Buruaga27Melo2Gónzalez

Manager: D. Muñoz

65'▲G. Novero←▼S. Parada

79'▲G. Bustos←▼M. Larraín

89'▲G. Albertengo←▼M. Donoso

89'▲J. Retamales←▼M. Carreño

San Luis substitutes

19Novero22Bustos23Albertengo15Retamales17Flores10Césped33Charpentier14Pastenes5Coronel