San Luis 2–1 U. Catolica: Result & Stats

San Luis

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

U. Catolica

G. Novero 16'

S. Parada 1'

E. Bello 89'

2/1/2025

Copa Chile · Group Stage - 2Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

San Luis40%

×Draw25%

U. Catolica35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LuisExpected goals in this matchU. Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.33

San Luis

1.45

U. Catolica

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.78

creates per match

1.22

1.44

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

San Luis

1.78

U. Catolica

1.22

allows per match

San Luis

1.44

U. Catolica

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Luis+0.00on par

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luis ↓

U. Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

San Luis or draw

65%

San Luis or U. Catolica

75%

Draw or U. Catolica

60%

Winning margin

San Luis wins by 2+

19%

U. Catolica wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

San Luis 1+ goals

77%

San Luis 2+ goals

42%

San Luis 3+ goals

18%

U. Catolica 1+ goals

74%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

38%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

San Luis (draw refunded)

54%

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luis at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luis attack 1.78 + U. Catolica defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.45

U. Catolica attack 1.22 + San Luis defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Luis scores more

40%

level

25%

U. Catolica scores more

35%

San Luis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

S. Parada↳ M. Carreño

16'

G. Novero↳ M. Carreño

32'

35'

55'

58'

59'

59'

66'

71'

D. Corral← Jader

71'

G. Medel← J. Valencia

73'

F. Flores← M. Carreño

73'

J. Araya← M. Larraín

82'

G. Medel

84'

A. Cerda← A. Canales

85'

A. Rodriguez

86'

H. Suazo← G. Novero

89'

E. Bello

90+8'

S. Parada

San

U.

1

Bernedo

3

▼

19

23

25

20

▼

Valencia

21

▼

Escobar

22

▼

Canales

9

Zampedri

18

⚽

Bello

7

▼

1

16

2

5

27

7

▼

Juárez

3

Sarria

11

⚽

Parada

19

⚽

▼

Novero

9

A

▼

Carreño

30

▼

Larraín

Manager: D. Muñoz

66'▲Á. Césped←▼F. Juárez

73'▲F. Flores←▼M. Carreño

73'▲J. Araya←▼M. Larraín

86'▲H. Suazo←▼G. Novero

San Luis substitutes

10Césped17Flores21Araya26Suazo14Pastenes15Retamales18Avello6Vergara33Charpentier

Manager: Tiago Nunes

59'▲G. Soto←▼D. Escobar

59'▲C. Cuevas←▼E. Mena

71'▲D. Corral←▼Jader

71'▲G. Medel←▼J. Valencia

84'▲A. Cerda←▼A. Canales

U. Catolica substitutes

12Soto15Cuevas35Corral17Medel29Cerda13Gillier33Letelier2Gónzalez28Arancibia

Copa Chile: San Luis 2–1 U. Catolica

San Luis beat U. Catolica 2-1 in Copa Chile on February 1, 2025.

Goals: S. Parada (1'), G. Novero (16'), E. Bello (89').

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.

San Luis vs U. Catolica — Copa Chile 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Chile: San Luis 2–1 U. Catolica