U. Catolica 2–1 San Luis: Result & Stats

U. Catolica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Luis

D. Llanos 83'

J. Fuenzalida 76'

Maximiliano Rodríguez 37'

9/22/2018

Primera División · Round 23San Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

U. Catolica61%

×Draw22%

San Luis17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. CatolicaExpected goals in this matchSan Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.86

U. Catolica

1.85

San Luis

0.86

U. Catolica creates 115% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 15 away

1.83

creates per match

0.80

0.92

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

U. Catolica

1.83

San Luis

0.80

allows per match

U. Catolica

0.92

San Luis

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par

San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw

83%

U. Catolica or San Luis

78%

Draw or San Luis

39%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+

35%

San Luis wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals

84%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

55%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

28%

San Luis 1+ goals

58%

San Luis 2+ goals

21%

San Luis 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

78%

San Luis (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

San Luis away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.83 + San Luis defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

San Luis attack 0.80 + U. Catolica defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

U. Catolica scores more

61%

level

22%

San Luis scores more

17%

U. Catolica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

D. Llanos

U. Catolica · F

7.6

Match Events

37'

Maximiliano Rodríguez↳ R. González

49'

C. Munder← D. Rojas

50'

José Pedro Fuenzalida

58'

Ignacio Gonzalez

67'

D. Llanos← R. Rebolledo

76'

J. Fuenzalida

77'

B. Sagredo← Maximiliano Rodríguez

81'

83'

86'

87'

87'

C. Melivilú← J. Rojas

90'

Camilo Moya

90'

Rodrigo González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.San

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots8

6Corners4

15Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots8

6On Target2

8Off Target6

5Blocked0

10Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

491Total Passes237

424Accurate Passes158

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides4