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U. Catolica vs Cobresal — Primera División 2018

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cobresal
Cobresal
J. Tiznado 86' (OG)
B. Ampuero 49'
D. Coelho 37'
8/30/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 22Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

U. Catolica47%
×Draw23%
Cobresal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
1.81
Cobresal
1.40

U. Catolica creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.12
Cobresal
1.66

allows per match

U. Catolica
1.15
Cobresal
2.49

finishing

U. Catolica+0.13scores more
Cobresal-0.66scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Cobresal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
70%
U. Catolica or Cobresal
77%
Draw or Cobresal
53%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
26%
Cobresal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
84%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
54%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
27%
Cobresal 1+ goals
75%
Cobresal 2+ goals
41%
Cobresal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
61%
Cobresal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 8 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.49 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.12 + Cobresal defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cobresal attack 1.66 + U. Catolica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

U. Catolica scores more
47%
level
23%
Cobresal scores more
30%

U. Catolica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
B. AmpueroU. CatolicaU. Catolica · D
8.2

Match Events

13'
Eugenio Mena
29'
Diego CoelhoPenalty cancelled
37'
D. Coelho↳ C. Yanis
46'
A. Canales← G. Medel
46'
C. Munder← B. Ramirez
48'
Cristhofer Mesías
49'
B. Ampuero↳ S. A. Arancibia Flores
54'
V. Fernandez← C. Mesias
57'
Diego Coelho
65'
Sebastián Arancibia
70'
Alfred Canales
78'
T. Asta-Buruaga← D. Gonzalez
78'
D. Corral← E. Bello
81'
Branco Ampuero
82'
Diego Corral
86'
J. TiznadoOwn goal
90+6'
Vicente Fernández
90+1'
J. Rossel← C. Montes
90+1'
A. Farias← D. Valencia

Possession

68%U.

Shots

14U.

Pass accuracy

53%U.

Statistics

U.Cobresal
Overview
68%Possession32%
14Total Shots12
5Corners2
12Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots12
5On Target4
8Off Target5
1Blocked3
10Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
68%Possession32%
514Total Passes242
451Accurate Passes186
88%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls10
5Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Primera División: U. Catolica 2–1 Cobresal

U. Catolica beat Cobresal 2-1 in Primera División on August 30, 2025.

Goals: D. Coelho (37'), B. Ampuero (49'), J. Tiznado (86' o.g.).

U. Catolica controlled possession (68%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo in Santiago de Chile.