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Cobresal vs U. Catolica — Primera División 2018

Cobresal
Cobresal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
S. Pino 50'
B. A. Carvallo U. 14'
A. Nadruz 3'
F. Zampedri 90', 44' (pen)
2/14/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 3El Cobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cobresal48%
×Draw25%
U. Catolica27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobresal
1.60
U. Catolica
1.12

Cobresal creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cobresal
1.86
U. Catolica
1.12

allows per match

Cobresal
1.12
U. Catolica
1.33

finishing

Cobresal-0.19scores less
U. Catolica+0.10scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw
73%
Cobresal or U. Catolica
75%
Draw or U. Catolica
52%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+
25%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals
80%
Cobresal 2+ goals
47%
Cobresal 3+ goals
22%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
67%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
31%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)
64%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.86 + U. Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

U. Catolica attack 1.12 + Cobresal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cobresal scores more
48%
level
25%
U. Catolica scores more
27%

Cobresal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. A. Carvallo U.CobresalCobresal · M
8.0

Match Events

3'
A. Nadruz↳ C. Yanis
14'
B. A. Carvallo U.↳ J. Brea
36'
A. Astudillo← R. Sandoval
41'
Diego CorralPenalty confirmed
44'
F. ZampedriPenalty
50'
S. Pino↳ G. Pacheco
60'
Steffan Pino
70'
B. Cerezo← J. A. Martinez
70'
J. Valencia← T. Asta-Buruaga
78'
E. Valencia← J. Brea
81'
D. Valencia← M. Palavecino
81'
V. Carcamo← D. Corral
83'
José Tiznado
86'
M. Sepulveda← S. Pino
86'
B. Valenzuela← C. Yanis
90'
F. Zampedri↳ D. Valencia

Possession

36%Cobresal

Shots

11Cobresal

Pass accuracy

46%Cobresal

Statistics

CobresalU.
Overview
36%Possession64%
11Total Shots25
5Corners11
9Fouls5
Shots
11Total Shots25
8On Target6
3Off Target13
0Blocked6
4Inside Box20
7Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
286Total Passes504
210Accurate Passes434
73%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls5
2Yellow Cards0
4Offsides1

Primera División: Cobresal 3–2 U. Catolica

Cobresal beat U. Catolica 3-2 in Primera División on February 14, 2026.

Goals: A. Nadruz (3'), B. A. Carvallo U. (14'), F. Zampedri (44' pen, 90'), S. Pino (50').

U. Catolica controlled possession (64%) and registered 25 shots to 11.

The match was played at El Cobre in El Salvador.