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Cobresal vs U. Catolica — Primera División 2018

Cobresal
Cobresal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
D. Cespedes 18'
J. Rossel 45'
4/12/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 7Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cobresal48%
×Draw25%
U. Catolica27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobresal
1.60
U. Catolica
1.12

Cobresal creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cobresal
1.86
U. Catolica
1.12

allows per match

Cobresal
1.12
U. Catolica
1.33

finishing

Cobresal-0.19scores less
U. Catolica+0.10scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw
73%
Cobresal or U. Catolica
75%
Draw or U. Catolica
52%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+
25%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals
80%
Cobresal 2+ goals
47%
Cobresal 3+ goals
22%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
67%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
31%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)
64%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.86 + U. Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

U. Catolica attack 1.12 + Cobresal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cobresal scores more
48%
level
25%
U. Catolica scores more
27%

Cobresal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. RosselU. CatolicaU. Catolica · F
7.5

Match Events

4'
Cristopher Barrera
18'
D. Cespedes↳ J. A. Henriquez Neira
32'
Cristhofer Mesías
37'
Fernando Zuqui
43'
Agustín Farías
45+2'
Juan Francisco Rossel
45'
J. Rossel
46'
A. Astudillo← C. Barrera
48'
Jader← J. Rossel
49'
J. Valencia← A. Farias
73'
A. Marquez← C. Mesias
73'
A. Vilches Araneda← D. Coelho
73'
J. Gaete← J. A. Henriquez Neira
75'
C. Montes← E. Mena
75'
D. Valencia← F. Zampedri
77'
César Munder

Possession

53%Cobresal

Shots

13Cobresal

Pass accuracy

50%Cobresal

Statistics

CobresalU.
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots14
6Corners6
12Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots14
3On Target3
7Off Target8
3Blocked3
4Inside Box9
9Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
444Total Passes387
381Accurate Passes328
86%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Primera División: Cobresal 1–1 U. Catolica

Cobresal and U. Catolica drew 1-1 in Primera División on April 12, 2025.

Goals: D. Cespedes (18'), J. Rossel (45').

Cobresal controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador in El Salvador.