Tychy 71 vs ŁKS Łódź — I Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 103+ matches
Tychy 7137%
ŁKS Łódź37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 136 home / 103 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tychy 71 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 136 matches
ŁKS Łódź away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 103 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32
ŁKS Łódź attack 1.43 + Tychy 71 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Tychy 71 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
ŁKS Łódź substitutes
Raków CzęstochowaŁKS Łódź
Stal Mielec
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Jastrzębie
PodbeskidzieTychy 71
Nieciecza
Puszcza Niepołomice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Stomil Olsztyn
Odra Opole
Warta Poznań
Chrobry Głogów
Wigry Suwałki
Bytovia Bytów
GKS Katowice
Garbarnia KrakówIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tychy 71 host ŁKS Łódź on Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 17:30. The match is part of the I Liga 2018/2019 season.
I Liga: Tychy 71 3–2 ŁKS Łódź
Tychy 71 beat ŁKS Łódź 3-2 in I Liga on April 18, 2026.
Goals: J. Keiblinger (11'), F. Piasecki (57', 73'), T. Rygula (74'), M. Szpakowski (86').
The match was played at Tychy City Stadium in Tychy.