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ŁKS Łódź vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
10/5/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 12Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

ŁKS Łódź47%
×Draw25%
Tychy 7128%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź
1.56
Tychy 71
1.15

ŁKS Łódź creates 36% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 136 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.07
Tychy 71
1.50

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw
72%
ŁKS Łódź or Tychy 71
75%
Draw or Tychy 71
53%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
24%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
79%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
46%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
21%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
68%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
32%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
62%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.63 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more
47%
level
25%
Tychy 71 scores more
28%

ŁKS Łódź at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź vs Tychy 71

ŁKS Łódź beat Tychy 71 3-1 in I Liga on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Lodz.