Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tychy 71 vs GKS Katowice — I Liga 2018

Tychy 71
Tychy 71
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
4/23/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 28Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Tychy 7140%
×Draw26%
GKS Katowice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tychy 71
1.36
GKS Katowice
1.24

Tychy 71 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 68 away

creates per match

Tychy 71
1.50
GKS Katowice
1.26

allows per match

Tychy 71
1.22
GKS Katowice
1.22

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par
GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

GKS Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw
66%
Tychy 71 or GKS Katowice
74%
Draw or GKS Katowice
60%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+
18%
GKS Katowice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals
74%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
39%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
16%
GKS Katowice 1+ goals
71%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
35%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
54%
GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 136 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

GKS Katowice attack 1.26 + Tychy 71 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tychy 71 scores more
40%
level
26%
GKS Katowice scores more
34%

Tychy 71 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tychy 71 vs GKS Katowice

GKS Katowice beat Tychy 71 3-0 in I Liga on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tychy.