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GKS Katowice vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
11/12/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 15Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

GKS Katowice44%
×Draw25%
Tychy 7131%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.50
Tychy 71
1.22

GKS Katowice creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 136 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.49
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.22
Tychy 71
1.50

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
69%
GKS Katowice or Tychy 71
75%
Draw or Tychy 71
56%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
21%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
78%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
44%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
19%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
70%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
34%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
59%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.49 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
44%
level
25%
Tychy 71 scores more
31%

GKS Katowice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GKS Katowice vs Tychy 71

GKS Katowice beat Tychy 71 1-0 in I Liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.