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Tuzla City vs Sloboda Tuzla — Premijer Liga 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
CANC
00:00
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
4/15/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 26Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Tuzla City54%
×Draw25%
Sloboda Tuzla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.59
Sloboda Tuzla
0.90

Tuzla City creates 77% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 81 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.55
Sloboda Tuzla
0.57

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.23
Sloboda Tuzla
1.64

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
79%
Tuzla City or Sloboda Tuzla
75%
Draw or Sloboda Tuzla
46%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
28%
Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
80%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
47%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
21%
Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
59%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
23%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
72%
Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 74 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.55 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sloboda Tuzla attack 0.57 + Tuzla City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tuzla City scores more
54%
level
25%
Sloboda Tuzla scores more
21%

Tuzla City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tuzla City host Sloboda Tuzla

April 15, 2023: Tuzla City take on Sloboda Tuzla in Premijer Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tuzla City host Sloboda Tuzla at Stadion Tušanj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.