Sloboda Tuzla 0–0 Tuzla City: Result & Stats

Sloboda Tuzla

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tuzla City

10/23/2022

Premijer Liga · Round 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla41%

×Draw27%

Tuzla City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda TuzlaExpected goals in this matchTuzla City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.15

Sloboda Tuzla

1.35

Tuzla City

1.15

Sloboda Tuzla creates 17% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 75 away

1.15

creates per match

1.03

1.26

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla

1.15

Tuzla City

1.03

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla

1.26

Tuzla City

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Tuzla City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw

68%

Sloboda Tuzla or Tuzla City

73%

Draw or Tuzla City

59%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+

19%

Tuzla City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals

74%

Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals

39%

Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals

15%

Tuzla City 1+ goals

68%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

32%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)

56%

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.15 + Tuzla City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tuzla City attack 1.03 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more

41%

level

27%

Tuzla City scores more

32%

Sloboda Tuzla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Eleouet← S. Nargalić

46'

F. Ferreyra← B. Mešinović

46'

A. Mendeš← A. Nukić

57'

M. Civic

57'

S. Vranjes

57'

A. Mendes

57'

A. Diaby

60'

N. Komazec← A. Bekić

60'

H. Beganović← E. Mehmedović

70'

S. Husejinović← J. Osmić

77'

M. Šukilović← A. Hrkać

88'

A. Eleouet

88'

S. Jarović← S. Maksimović

90'

K. Osmankovic

Sloboda

Tuzla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Jahić

60'▲N. Komazec←▼A. Bekić

60'▲H. Beganović←▼E. Mehmedović

70'▲S. Husejinović←▼J. Osmić

88'▲S. Jarović←▼S. Maksimović

Sloboda Tuzla substitutes

KomazecBeganovićHusejinovićJarović

Manager: D. Jović

46'▲A. Eleouet←▼S. Nargalić

46'▲F. Ferreyra←▼B. Mešinović

46'▲A. Mendeš←▼A. Nukić

77'▲M. Šukilović←▼A. Hrkać

Tuzla City substitutes

EleouetFerreyraMendešŠukilović