Sloboda Tuzla 2–1 Tuzla City: Result & Stats

Sloboda Tuzla

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tuzla City

H. Beganovic 69'

M. Medinic 52' (OG)

M. Alicic 3'

8/23/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla71%

×Draw19%

Tuzla City10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda TuzlaExpected goals in this matchTuzla City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.59

Sloboda Tuzla

2.02

Tuzla City

0.59

Sloboda Tuzla creates 242% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

1.86

creates per match

0.48

0.71

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla

1.86

Tuzla City

0.48

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla

0.71

Tuzla City

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Tuzla City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw

90%

Sloboda Tuzla or Tuzla City

81%

Draw or Tuzla City

29%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+

45%

Tuzla City wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals

87%

Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals

60%

Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals

33%

Tuzla City 1+ goals

45%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

12%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)

88%

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more

71%

level

19%

Tuzla City scores more

10%

Sloboda Tuzla at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Alicic

52'

M. MedinicOwn goal

69'

H. Beganovic

Sloboda

Tuzla

Manager: I. Janković

Manager: S. Petrović